The asteroid known as 99942 Apophis was discovered on December 2004, It had once given astronomers and officials at NASA some concern in regards to how close it may come to Earth, But recent projections have moved it completely off the impact list on its 2029 flyby. Named after an Ancient Egyptian mythical demon Apep, or Apophis in Greek The 325 meter, 40 million ton asteroid is believed to safely pass by the earth in 2029 and 2036, a recent published NASA article has indicated a third passing in 2068. Based on optical and radar measurements made between 2004 - 2012. Apophis will pass the earth in 2029 at an approximate altitude of 31900; within a give or take of 750km differential. Now here is the part of interest. The Earth’s gravity will deflect onto the asteroids trajectory, At one point it was perceived an impact trajectory would require Aphosis to pass the Earth at a precise altitude, known as a keyhole in 2029. This year over a dozen identified keyholes fall under the range of possible 2029 encounter distances. In accordance to an article of a group of scientists led by David Farnocchia.
The uncertainty of predicting the asteroid’s positioning in 2029 is based squarely on the Yarkovsky effect. Though it does stand the chance on each passing of Apophis we will avoid any harm in our lifetime, but under each passing the probability does shift greatly . Now, only because people enjoy Hollywood disaster movies etc... here is the science behind Apophis should it impact. Based on the Sentry Risk Table estimates Apophis comes with a 750 megatons of kinetic energy; A very exciting point in our history was in 1883, with the eruption of Krakatoa it had a rough equivalency of 200 megatons; and the biggest hydrogen bomb that ever exploded, was the Tsar Bomba at around 57 megatons. A model Path of Risk assessment was created for the April 13, 2036 flyby if the Apophis hit the Earth; Traveling between Nicaragua and Costa Rica, crossing Colombia and Venezuela and into the Atlantic or possibly hitting Africa. If it were to hit the Mexican costal area it would have an initial devastation of 10 million people, with an exponential fallout. If Apophis enters in the Atlantic an unprecedented and near apocalyptic tsunami would most likely occur.
The asteroid known as 99942 Apophis was discovered on December 2004, It had once given astronomers and officials at NASA some concern in regards to how close it may come to Earth, But recent projections have moved it completely off the impact list on its 2029 flyby. Named after an Ancient Egyptian mythical demon Apep, or Apophis in Greek The 325 meter, 40 million ton asteroid is believed to safely pass by the earth in 2029 and 2036, a recent published NASA article has indicated a third passing in 2068. Based on optical and radar measurements made between 2004 - 2012. Apophis will pass the earth in 2029 at an approximate altitude of 31900; within a give or take of 750km differential. Now here is the part of interest. The Earth’s gravity will deflect onto the asteroids trajectory, At one point it was perceived an impact trajectory would require Aphosis to pass the Earth at a precise altitude, known as a keyhole in 2029. This year over a dozen identified keyholes fall under the range of possible 2029 encounter distances. In accordance to an article of a group of scientists led by David Farnocchia.
The uncertainty of predicting the asteroid’s positioning in 2029 is based squarely on the Yarkovsky effect. Though it does stand the chance on each passing of Apophis we will avoid any harm in our lifetime, but under each passing the probability does shift greatly . Now, only because people enjoy Hollywood disaster movies etc... here is the science behind Apophis should it impact. Based on the Sentry Risk Table estimates Apophis comes with a 750 megatons of kinetic energy; A very exciting point in our history was in 1883, with the eruption of Krakatoa it had a rough equivalency of 200 megatons; and the biggest hydrogen bomb that ever exploded, was the Tsar Bomba at around 57 megatons. A model Path of Risk assessment was created for the April 13, 2036 flyby if the Apophis hit the Earth; Traveling between Nicaragua and Costa Rica, crossing Colombia and Venezuela and into the Atlantic or possibly hitting Africa. If it were to hit the Mexican costal area it would have an initial devastation of 10 million people, with an exponential fallout. If Apophis enters in the Atlantic an unprecedented and near apocalyptic tsunami would most likely occur.
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